Commodity-linked currencies are holding close to important technical levels, with price action remaining subdued as traders adopt a cautious, wait-and-see stance. The fundamental backdrop is driven by expectations around Australia’s upcoming inflation report and the Bank of Canada’s interest rate decision, along with its subsequent press briefing. These events are widely seen as pivotal catalysts that could reshape momentum in the respective currency pairs.
Market participants are also keeping a close eye on broader global influences, including incoming US data on economic activity and crude oil inventories. At the same time, lingering uncertainty surrounding negotiations between the United States and Iran continues to weigh on overall market risk sentiment.
AUD/USD
The AUD/USD pair is hovering near its annual peak at approximately 0.7220. This area is drawing particular attention, as the pair has not traded above it for the past three years, reinforcing its importance as a potential supply zone. Should inflation data from Australia exceed expectations, a breakout and continuation higher may follow. Conversely, weaker figures could prompt a pullback, sending the pair back into the 0.7100–0.7180 range.
Key events for AUD/USD:
- today at 16:00 (GMT+3): S&P/CS Composite-20 Home Price Index (US, non-seasonally adjusted)
- today at 17:00 (GMT+3): US Consumer Confidence Index (Conference Board)
- tomorrow at 04:30 (GMT+3): Australia Consumer Price Index
USD/CAD
The rebound in USD/CAD seen last week has started to fade after the pair failed to sustain gains above the 1.3700 level. Although a new April low was recorded yesterday, the pair found support near 1.3600 and moved higher from there. Technical signals suggest that a move below 1.3600 could open the way for further declines towards the 1.3540–1.3520 area. On the other hand, a firm break and consolidation above 1.3700 would invalidate the bearish outlook.
Key events for USD/CAD:
- tomorrow at 15:30 (GMT+3): US housing starts data
- tomorrow at 16:45 (GMT+3): Bank of Canada rate decision
- tomorrow at 17:30 (GMT+3): Bank of Canada press conference
In summary, markets are currently in a holding pattern, with AUD/USD and USD/CAD positioned at key technical junctures. The direction from here will largely depend on upcoming macroeconomic releases — notably Australia’s CPI, the Bank of Canada’s policy decision, and US economic indicators — which will determine whether current trends extend or give way to renewed consolidation.
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